NFL Nation, ESPNOct 18, 2024, 06:40 AM ET
The Week 7 NFL schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with great matchups, and we have you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend.
Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. The ESPN Research team provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with game projections. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X factors, and three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full Week 7 slate, including the Lions visiting the Vikings and wide receiver Davante Adams‘ Jets debut versus the Steelers. It all culminates with a pair of “Monday Night Football” matchups between the Ravens and Buccaneers (8:15 p.m. ET) on ABC/ESPN and the Chargers visiting the Cardinals (9 p.m. ET) on ESPN+. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
Jump to a matchup:
NON-JAX | SEA-ATL | TEN-BUF
CIN-CLE | HOU-GB | MIA IND
IT-MINE | PHI-NYG | LV-LAR
CAR-WSH | KC-SF | NYJ-PIT
BAL-TB | LAC-ARI
Thursday: DEN 33, NO 10
Byes: CHI, DAL
Patriots (1-5) at Jaguars (1-5)
9:30 a.m. p.m. ET | NFL Network | ESPN BET: JAX -5.5 (42.5 O/U)
Patriots storyline to watch: Rookie QB Drake Maye threw for 243 yards in his first career start in Week 6 and now faces a Jaguars pass defense that ranks last in the NFL, allowing an average of 276.7 passing yards per game. Maye became the first QB to make one of his first two career starts in a game outside the United States since the NFL started playing international regular-season games in 2005. — Mike Reiss
Jaguars storyline to watch: Will the Jaguars change their approach on defense against another rookie QB in Maye? Jacksonville opted to sit back and minimally blitz Chicago’s Caleb Williams last week (just eight times in 32 dropbacks) and got shredded, allowing him to throw for 226 yards and four TDs. The Jaguars have the second-worst blitz percentage (17.6) in the NFL, but it looks like top corner Tyson Campbell (hamstring) will be back, so that beefs up the secondary a bit and might make defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen a little more aggressive. — Mike DiRocco
Stat to know: The Patriots enter this matchup on a five-game losing streak, which is tied for the longest by New England over past 30 seasons.
Bold prediction: Patriots DL Keion White will sack QB Trevor Lawrence. White has a strong 20% pass rush win rate, and both Jaguars tackles rank in the bottom 10 in pass block win rate. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Jaguars RB Tank Bigsby. Bigsby is in line for a bigger role with Travis Etienne Jr. dealing with a hamstring injury. Bigsby should handle early downs and short-yardage situations, while D’Ernest Johnson steps in as the receiving back. The Patriots give up the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs. See Week 7 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Jaguars are 1-3 outright and ATS when favored in a London game. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Patriots 24, Jaguars 17
Moody’s pick: Patriots 27, Jaguars 26
Walder’s pick: Jaguars 27, Patriots 23
FPI prediction: JAX, 69.5% (by an average of 8.0 points)
Matchup must-reads: Patriots’ offense was energized in Maye’s first start … Jaguars’ 2024 free agent class off to rough start … NFL owners approve Jaguars’ $1.4B stadium renovation
Seahawks (3-3) at Falcons (4-2)
1 pm ET | FOX | ESPN BET: ATL -3 (51.5 O/U)
Seahawks storyline to watch: Coach Mike Macdonald is not a big blitzer, preferring instead to send only four rushers most of the time. Seattle is 22nd in blitz rate this year, while the Ravens ranked 25th over his two seasons as their defensive coordinator (2022-2023). But will Macdonald turn up the heat against QB Kirk Cousins? The Falcons have allowed the lowest pressure rate in non-blitz situations, and the Seahawks have to find a way to create more takeaways after recording only one in their past five games. — Brady Henderson
Falcons storyline to watch: Falcons RBs Sesame Robinson and Tyler Allgeier both had breakout games in Week 6, combining for 200 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. The Seahawks have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards (868) in the league and 5.0 yards per carry, tied for the third-worst mark. Atlanta might look to be a run-first team for the second straight week with its formidable one-two punch. — Marc Raimondi
Stat to know: The Seahawks have scored 20-plus points in all six games this season. The Ravens and Commanders are the only other teams to do the same.
Bold prediction: Falcons OLB Matthew Judon will record at least 1.5 sacks against QB Geno Smith. Judon will have the benefit of facing Stone Forsythewho ranks 63rd out of 66 tackles in pass block win rate. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Seahawks WR DK Metcalf. He will face Falcons CB A.J. Terrelland that’s exciting news for fantasy managers. Terrell struggled against George Pickens, DeVonta Smith, Mike Evans and Diontae Johnson. While Metcalf has been quiet over the past two weeks, this matchup gives him a great opportunity to get back on track. See Week 7 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Falcons have gone over the total in three straight games (all wins). Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Falcons 28, Seahawks 21
Moody’s pick: Falcons 31, Seahawks 27
Walder’s pick: Seahawks 28, Falcons 27
FPI prediction: ATL, 58.2% (by an average of 3.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Seahawks trade for DT Robertson-Harris … Falcons’ London emerging as elite WR … Seahawks lose another key defender in Jenkins to IR
0:30
Is the over or the under the better play in Seahawks-Falcons?
Tyler Fulghum previews why he leans toward the over in the Week 7 matchup between Seattle and Atlanta.
Titans (1-4) at Bills (4-2)
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BUF -9.5 (40.5 O/U)
Titans storyline to watch: The Titans’ passing game has gotten off to a terrible start, including a 95-yard passing performance by QB Will Levis last week. Through five games, Tennessee’s offense is averaging 135 passing yards per game, 31st in the league. Offensive coordinator Nick Holz said the unit watched every passing play to figure out what’s going on. Look for the Titans to get into the passing game early against the Bills, with Levis especially looking to get the ball to receiver Calvin Ridley. — Turron Davenport
Bills storyline to watch: The Bills made a big move this week to improve the wide receiver group by adding Amari Cooper. How much of a role he can have this week in such limited time with the team is to be seen, but the challenge, no matter how much Cooper plays against the Titans, is putting together drives. Tennessee’s defense leads the NFL with 248.8 yards allowed per game, while the Bills have averaged 290.3 yards per game in the past three games and not scored more than 23 points. Changing that trend will be key. — Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: The Titans lead the NFL in total defense (248.8 yards per game), which is their third-fewest yards allowed per game in the first five games since 1976.
Bold prediction: Cooper will record a 40-plus-yard reception in his Bills debut. The Browns successfully used Cooper as more of a deep threat last year. Buffalo will be glad to have another deep option for QB Josh Allen. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Titans RB Tony Pollard. He has scored 15 or more fantasy points in four out of five games. He has been one of the few consistent fantasy options for the Titans and is poised for a massive workload as Tyjae Spears deals with a hamstring injury. Pollard faces a Bills defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs. See Week 7 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bills are 1-6 ATS in their past seven games laying at least a touchdown. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Bills 27, Titans 21
Moody’s pick: Bills 27, Titans 10
Walder’s pick: Bills 27, Titans 13
FPI prediction: BUF, 71.4% (by an average of 8.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: Titans still trying to figure what works best with QB Levis … WR Cooper excited for ‘fresh beginning’ with Bills
Bengals (2-4) at Browns (1-5)
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: CIN -5.5 (41.5 O/U)
Bengals storyline to watch: No player has impacted QB Joe Burrow more than Browns DE Myles Garrett. Garrett has sacked Burrow the most (eight), hit him twice as much as anyone else (16) and also held Burrow to a 28.6 completion percentage when pressuring him. Burrow on facing the Browns: “We’re going to have to get physical, run the ball really well, play-action and just play an overall team game.” — Ben Baby
Browns storyline to watch: RB Nick Chubb is expected to make his season debut as he returns from last year’s severe knee injury. While Chubb probably will be on a snap count, he could help a struggling offense that still hasn’t found an identity through six games. The Bengals’ defense ranks last in the NFL in success rate on run plays (47.3%). — Daniel Oyefusi
Stat to know: The Bengals have an NFL-worst 47% defensive success rate against the run. All other teams in the NFL are above 50%.
Bold pre diction: Bengals DE Trey Hendrickson will sack QB Deshaun Watson three times. Watson is taking sacks at an outrageous 12.4% rate. With this big performance, Hendrickson will launch himself into the now open Defensive Player of the Year race. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Bengals RB Chase Brown. He has emerged as the top back in Cincinnati, scoring 14-plus fantasy points in each of the past three games. Last week against the Giants, Brown played more snaps than Zack Moss for the first time this season. See Week 7 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Browns have gone under their team total in all six games this season. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Bengals 28, Browns 14
Moody’s pick: Bengals 27, Browns 20
Walder’s pick: Bengals 33, Browns 16
FPI prediction: CIN, 61.8% (by an average of 4.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: RB Brown adding dynamic element to Bengals’ attack … Browns trade WR Cooper to Bills … What RB Chubb’s return can mean for Browns’ offense
1:43
Chris Canty calls for Browns to trade Myles Garrett
Chris Canty explains why the Browns have no hope and should trade star DE Myles Garrett.
Texans (5-1) at Packers (4-2)
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: GB -2.5 (47.5 O/U)
Texans storyline to watch: Coach DeMeco Ryans said earlier in the week that Packers QB Jordan Love “will be the best quarterback we’ve seen this year.” And Love’s strongest ability is play-action, as he has the second highest passer rating (132.1) in those situations. Also, the Texans struggle defending it as they’ve allowed the third-highest passer rating (126). — DJ Bien-Aime
Packers storyline to watch: While much of the focus last week was on the return of WR Romeo Doubs from his one-game suspensionthe Packers’ most consistent receiver has been Jayden Reed. He has a team-high 27 catches on 34 targets this season, and his 79% reception rate is seventh best in the NFL. The Packers’ offense will look to challenge a Texans defense that is allowing 163.2 passing yards per game, the fourth-best mark. — Rob Demovsky
Stat to know: OF Will Anderson Jr.’s 5.5 sacks this season are the most by a Houston player through six games since JJ Watt in 2018 (7.0).
Bold prediction: Texans LB Henry To’oTo’o will record 10-plus combined tackles. To’oTo’o ranks 14th out of 52 in tackle rate on run plays among off-ball linebackers who have played at least 70% of snaps this season. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Love. He has scored 25 or more fantasy points in two of his past three games. The matchup with the Texans at Lambeau Field is projected to be high scoring. See Week 7 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: NFC North teams are 17-3 ATS in non-division games this season, including 3-0 ATS in Week 6. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Texans 30, Packers 28
Moody’s pick: Packers 30, Texans 24
Walder’s pick: Packers 27, Texans 24
FPI prediction: GB, 57.7% (by an average of 3.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Texans’ offense, RB Mixon explode despite not having WR Collins … Packers’ Love proving he ‘trusts the entire receiving corps’ … McManus grateful to join Packers after ‘difficult time’
Dolphins (2-3) at Colts (3-3)
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: IND -3 (43.5 O/U)
Dolphins storyline to watch: In QB Tyler Huntley‘s third start of the season, keep an eye on tight end John Smithwhom Huntley targeted eight times in Miami’s win over the Patriots in Week 5. The Dolphins spent the bye week coming up with ways to get him more involved, and the Colts have allowed the 10th-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends this season. Huntley and the Dolphins can open up the passing game by establishing the run — especially after rushing for a season-high 193 yards in Week 5. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Colts storyline to watch: The Colts have managed to hold just one opponent to fewer than 100 rushing yards this season and have otherwise been disappointing against the run. Can they manage to keep the Dolphins in check given Miami’s underwhelming rushing attack that is producing 3.9 yards per carry? The Colts’ rush defense has stabilized a bit since its two opening games, when it allowed 474 combined yards. If Indianapolis can limit the ground game, it puts more pressure on Miami’s passing game with its unstable quarterback situation. — Stephen Holder
Stat to know: Miami’s 12 points per game (60 total points) are the worst in NFL. It has scored fewer than 75 points in six straight games only three times in franchise history.
Bold prediction: Colts WR Josh Downs will record a fourth straight game with 65 or more receiving yards. Downs has been productive working with QB Joe Flaccobut I think he’ll remain effective even with Anthony Richardson. His 80 open score suggests his route running has taken a step up. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill. He led Miami in targets (10), receptions (six) and receiving yards (69) in Week 5 before the bye. This week, Hill will look to build more chemistry with Huntley. The matchup is too juicy to pass up. Indianapolis’ defense has given up the 11th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 7 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Colts are 5-1 ATS this season, including 3-0 ATS at home. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Colts 24, Dolphins 14
Moody’s pick: Colts 23, Dolphins 17
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 22, Colts 21
FPI prediction: IND, 72.2% (by an average of 8.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: McDaniel expects Tua to play again in 2024 … Colts expect QB Richardson to start vs. Dolphins … Why Miami’s offense is sputtering without Tua, and what can be fixed
Lions (4-1) at Vikings (5-0)
1 pm ET | FOX | ESPN BET: MIN -1.5 (50.5 O/U)
Lions storyline to watch: Detroit’s offense will enter Minnesota on a roll under the leadership of QB Jared Goffwho has five touchdown passes and zero interceptions in his past two games. The Lions have won three straight against the Vikings but are 2.5-point underdogs for the first time this season. — Eric Woodyard
Vikings storyline to watch: It’s hard to imagine the Vikings winning if they’re not able to slow the Lions’ run game. Minnesota’s defense has allowed the NFL’s second-fewest rushing yards per game (67.2) and the fewest rushing touchdowns (0.2 per game), while Detroit ranks fourth with an average of 157.8 rushing yards per game. When the Lions are able to run on offense, they’re extremely difficult to beat. — Kevin Seifert
Stat to know: In eight career games against the Lions, WR Justin Jefferson has totaled 1,073 receiving yards. That’s the most by any player in his first eight games versus an opponent in NFL history.
1:45
Rex Ryan: Hutchinson injury ‘might have lost the Super Bowl’ for Lions
Rex Ryan and Dan Orlovsky explain how the Lions’ loss of Aidan Hutchinson could impact their Super Bowl chances.
Bold prediction: The Lions will hold Sam Darnold to a QBR under 50, even without DE Aidan Hutchinson. Don’t get me wrong, Hutchinson was amazing, but Detroit’s defensive renaissance is about more than just him. They’ll step up without Hutchinson. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Lions WR Jameson Williams. Is he flying under the radar? Amon-Ra St. Brown is a must start for fantasy managers, but I do get asked a lot of questions about whether to start or sit Williams. While he has had nine or more targets in only two games this season, Williams has scored 14-plus fantasy points in five out of six games. See Week 7 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Vikings are 5-0 ATS this season, seeking to be the first team to win and cover their first six games since 2009. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Lions 28, Vikings 27
Moody’s pick: Lions 24, Vikings 19
Walder’s pick: Lions 24, Vikings 16
FPI prediction: DET, 57.1% (by an average of 2.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Lions extend DT McNeill for 4 years, $55M guaranteed … Will Lions’ physical style slow Vikings’ WR Jefferson? … Lions won’t count out Hutchinson returning after broken leg … Vikings’ 5 biggest surprises that led to shocking 5-0 start
Eagles (3-2) at Giants (2-4)
1 pm ET | FOX | ESPN BET: PHI -3 (42.5 O/U)
Eagles storyline to watch: It’s the Saquon Barkley game. The running back returns to MetLife Stadium for the first time as an Eagle after six years as the marquee player for the Giants. He has been as advertised for Philadelphia so far with 482 yards and five total touchdowns. He’s unsure of what the environment will be like toward him but said whatever it is, he hopes “it gives me a little extra juice” to help his team win. — Tim McManus
Giants storyline to watch: The Giants’ run defense has been a problem this season, allowing 5.2 yards per carry. Only the Bills have allowed more (5.3). Defensive coordinator Shane Bowen noted that with Barkley it’s about avoiding the home run. They’ll have their work cut out for them in this revenge game. –Jordan Raanan
Stat to know: Eagles QB Jalen Hurts has 43 career rushing touchdowns, which is tied with Hall of Famer Steve Young for the third most in NFL history.
Bold prediction: Giants QB Daniel Jones will set a season high for passing yards. Jones’ highest yardage game (281) was against the Cowboys in Week 4.The Eagles rank just 26th in EPA per dropback, and I can see New York falling behind and playing catchup through the air. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Giants WR Wan’Dale Robinson. He continues to be a reliable target for Jones. Robinson has seen eight or more targets in four straight games and has scored 10-plus fantasy points in ea ch of those contests, including two with 16 or more. See Week 7 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: This is the 16th straight meeting the Eagles have been favored in, including the playoffs, which is the longest streak by either team in this matchup in the Super Bowl era. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Eagles 21, Giants 20
Moody’s pick: Eagles 26, Giants 23
Walder’s pick: Eagles 27, Giants 17
FPI prediction: PHI, 63.5% (by an average of 5.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: How Barkley went from ‘Giant for life’ to Eagles
Raiders (2-4) at Rams (1-4)
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: LAR -7 (43.5 O/U)
Raiders storyline to watch: The Raiders, who spent 1982 to 1994 in Los Angeles and maintain a huge and loyal following in the city, are expected to hold a significant crowd advantage against the Rams. But the Raiders are just 1-5 at SoFi Stadium, with their lone win in Inglewood coming with no fans in 2020. Getting rookie Brock Bowerswho leads all NFL tight ends in catches (37) and receiving yards (384), going early and often against the Rams’ NFL-worst passing defense in terms of passer rating allowed (117.2) will go a long way to help turn that tide. — Paul Gutierrez
Rams storyline to watch: If Sean McVay earns his 79th career win Sunday, he would tie John Robinson for the most by a head coach in Rams history. According to ESPN Research, McVay, 38, would be the second man since the 1970 merger to be the winningest coach of a franchise before turning 40. He can join John Madden, who became the Raiders’ all-time wins leader at age 36 in 1972. –Sarah Barshop
Stat to know: The Raiders rank 31st in the NFL in rushing yards per game (79.5), while the Rams’ defense gives up the most rushing yards per game (157.6).
Bold prediction: A Rams wide receiver will record 100-plus receiving yards. I don’t know if Cooper Coup (ankle) will be active, but I do know that the Raiders have a defensive open score against receivers of 30, which ranks fourth worst in the league. If Kupp does return to action, it should be a nice spot to produce right away. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Bowers. He leads all tight ends with 16 or more fantasy points in two straight games. This week, Bowers faces a Rams defense that allows the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends, making him a must-start. See Week 7 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Rams are 0-7 ATS on extra rest since 2022. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Rams 22, Raiders 17
Moody’s pick: Rams 31, Raiders 14
Walder’s pick: Rams 27, Raiders 20
FPI prediction: LAR, 63.8% (by an average of 5.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: How will the WR Adams era go down in Raiders history? … Rams WR Kupp nears return, but is Week 7 realistic? … Owners approve Brady’s bid to buy into Raiders
Panthers (1-5) at Commanders (4-2)
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: WSH -8 (51.5 O/U)
Panthers storyline to watch: This is a nightmare matchup for the Carolina defense even if it does get back three players (ILB Josey JewellOLB Jadeveon Clowney and S Sam Franklin) from injuries. The Commanders rank fifth in total offense (378 yards per game) and rush offense (157.3) and are second in scoring (29.7 points per game). The Panthers rank 29th in total defense (379.8 yards per game), 30th against the run (153.5) and last in points allowed (33.8 points per game). Rookie QB Jayden Daniels‘ ability to make off-schedule plays creates even more of a problem for Carolina. — David Newton
Commanders storyline to watch: Washington has been hit hard by injuries along the defensive line, with DT Jonathan Allen (pectoral) out for the year and DE Dorance Armstrong dealing with a rib injury that might sideline him Sunday. Rotational DE Javontae Jean-Baptiste (ankle) was just placed on injured reserve. That could lead to a tricky game Sunday. In the past four games with QB Andy Dalton starting, the Panthers rank eighth in rushing yards per game (130) and seventh in yards per carry (5.0). Dalton is 10th in QBR during this period. — John Keim
Stat to know: Commanders QB Jayden Daniels has gone four straight games with 70-plus Total QBR, which is tied for the second-longest streak by rookie starting QB since 2006, when Total QBR was introduced (only longer streak was six games by Matt Ryan in 2008).
Bold prediction: Panthers WR Xavier Legette will record a career high in receiving yards (66). The Commanders are weak at corner, and that should present an opportunity for the rookie. — Walder
Injuries: Panthers | Commanders
Fantasy X factor: Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard. He’s making fantasy managers forget Carolina drafted Jonathon Brooks with the way he’s playing. Hubbard has logged 22 or more touches in three of his past four games, and he has scored 17 or more fantasy points in each of those contests. See Week 7 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Commanders have covered five straight games, which is tied for their longest cover streak in the past decade (2020). Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Commanders 40, Panthers 17
Moody’s pick: Commanders 38, Panthers 21
Walder’s pick: Commanders 42, Panthers 24
FPI prediction: WSH, 72.9% (by an average of 9.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Panthers RB Hubbard: ‘I just want to be great’ … Commanders’ defense hasn’t kept up with offense … Third-down struggles continue to hamstring Panthers’ defense … Commanders RB Robinson practices: ‘I feel great’
1:36
What would Brian Robinson Jr.’s return mean for fantasy managers?
Daniel Dopp, Field Yates and Mike Clay are optimistic about Brian Robinson’s fantasy prospects if he returns vs. the Panthers.
Chiefs (5-0) at 49ers (3-3)
4:25 pm ET | FOX | ESPN BET: SF -1.5 (46.5 O/U)
Chiefs storyline to watch: First team to score a red zone touchdown wins? Both teams have had problems getting touchdowns while inside the 20-yard-line, with the Chiefs being fourth worst in the league (38.9%) and the 49ers not much better (44.4%). The team that does better in the red zone gets a decided advantage in what otherwise should be a close game. — Adam Teicher
49ers storyline to watch: No quarterback who has started at least four games against the Niners has averaged more passing yards than Patrick Mahomeswho is posting 339 yards per game against San Francisco. The challenge this week will be for the Niners to tackle much better than they have in recent weeks. Kansas City leads the NFL in yards after catch per completion (7.1), while the Niners rank 26th in the NFL in YAC allowed per reception (6.0). If the Niners are to finally get over the hump and beat the Chiefs and Mahomes for the first time under coach Kyle Shanahan, much will hinge on how well they tackle in space. — Nick Wagoner
Stat to know: The Chiefs are 5-0 despite outscoring their opponents by only 33 points, which is the lowest point differential by any 5-0 team since the 2004 Jets (plus-31).
Bold prediction: The 49ers won’t allow more than 4 yards to a screen pass. The Chiefs run screens 7% of the time, the third-highest rate in the league. But the 49ers are the best NFL defense against screens in terms of EPA per play. Samples, of course, are tiny. But it’s something to keep an eye on. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Chiefs WR JuJu Smith-Schuster. After WR Rashee Rice‘s season-ending knee injurySmith-Schuster stepped up. He had a strong showing before the team’s Week 6 bye, finishing with eight targets and 20 fantasy points against the Saints. While the 49ers’ defense presents a challenge, he should still see plenty of targets from Mahomes. See Week 7 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: 49ers QB Brock Purdy is making his 28th regular-season start, and he has never been an underdog. The only time Purdy has ever closed as an underdog was in the 2022 NFC Championship Game (+3 at Eagles in a game the Niners lost 31-7). Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Chiefs 28, 49ers 24
Moody’s pick: 49ers 28, Chiefs 21
Walder’s pick: 49ers 26, Chiefs 20
FPI prediction: SF, 51.5% (by an average of 0.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Amid trades, Chiefs content with WR room … 49ers ‘moved on’ from Super Bowl loss to Chiefs … How RB Hunt went from FA to powerhouse in Chiefs return
Jets (2-4) at Steelers (4-2)
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: NYJ -2 (38.5 O/U)
Jets storyline to watch: Newly acquired WR Davante Adams is expected to make his Jets debut in what could be a make-or-break game for 2-4 New York. He appears healthy after a three-week hamstring injury, so don’t be surprised if he has a significant workload. The coaches believe he’s ahead of the learning curve because of his background with QB Aaron Rodgers. A sobering stat: The Jets’ six-game point total (113) is the same as it was last season with Zach Wilson at quarterback. Pass protection has been a problem (30 QB hits in the past three games), and they have to deal with LB T.J. Watt (4.5 sacks). — Rich Cimini
Steelers storyline to watch: With Russell Wilson healthy, the Steelers face another significant quarterback decision against Jets defense that’s tied for third with 20 sacks this season. Justin Fields has been sacked 16 times, tied for sixth most in the NFL. The Steelers’ offensive line is also poised to start its fifth combination in seven games with Ryan McCollum taking over at center for injured rookie starter Zach Frazier. Fields’ mobility undoubtedly helps a banged-up offensive line, but Tomlin has expressed a desire to explore an offense with Wilson as the signal-caller. — Brooke Pryor
Stat to know: Rodgers has 28 consecutive games with fewer than 300 passing yards, which is the longest active streak in the NFL and the longest in his career.
Bold prediction: Fans at Acrisure Stadium will be calling for Fields to retake the starting QB job before the game’s end. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Adams. He has a well-documented rapport with Rodgers. Adams has averaged 8.6 targets and 16.6 fantasy points per game when playing with Rodgers in Green Bay. See Week 7 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Unders are 32-10 on “Sunday Night Football” since 2022, including 6-0 this season. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Jets 21, Steelers 17
Moody’s pick: Jets 20, Steelers 17
Walder’s pick: Jets 23, Steelers 13
FPI prediction: PIT, 50.7% (by an average of 0.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Inside the Jets’ split with Saleh, next steps … Wilson or Fields? Case for Steelers to start either QB … Can QB Rodgers and WR Adams recreate their magic? … Fields: No QB debate if I play better
2:12
Stephen A., Dan Orlovsky get heated during Jets debate
Stephen A. Smith and the “First Take” crew are emphatic when discussing whether this season is Super Bowl or bust for the Jets.
Ravens (4-2) at Buccaneers (4-2)
8:15 pm ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ | ESPN BET: BAL -3.5 (49.5 O/U)
Ravens storyline to watch: This marks the ninth meeting between QBs Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jacksontwo Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks who were selected with the first and last picks of the first round in the 2018 draft. Jackson leads the head-to-head matchups against Mayfield 6-2, winning the past three. — Jamison Hensley
Buccaneers storyline to watch: The Ravens and Bucks are first and second in the NFL in scoring. The Ravens lead the league with 21 offensive touchdowns, and the Bucs have 20. Tampa Bay probably won’t rely on the newly discovered ground game that mustered 277 yards against the Saints considering the Ravens’ defense is surrendering just 59 yards on the ground per game. That’s where the Bucs’ defense needs to be the difference-maker. In the games they’ve lost this year — to the Broncos and Falcons — it has been due in large part to poor tackling. –Jenna Laine
Stat to know: Since ESPN introduced Total QBR in 2006, 45 QBs have started at least five games on “Monday Night Football.” None of them posted a higher mark than Jackson (85.4).
Bold prediction: There will be at least 57 combined points scored. We know the Ravens can score, but the Bucs are a pass-heavy team with success in the air. Baltimore’s defense plays right into that, ranking 27th in EPA allowed per opponent dropback. — Walder
Injuries: Ravens | Buccaneers
Fantasy X factor: Mayfield. Mayfield has been a surprise this season, averaging 22.5 fantasy points per game — second only to Jackson (23.9). Baltimore’s defense has given up the second-most fantasy points to QBs this year. See Week 7 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Prime-time unders are 81-52-1 over the past three seasons. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Buccaneers 35, Ravens 27
Moody’s pick: Ravens 35, Buccaneers 28
Walder’s pick: Ravens 34, Buccaneers 26
FPI prediction: BAL, 58.0% (by an average of 3.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Lamar, Ravens ‘being humble’ as No. 1 offense booms
Chargers (3-2) at Cardinals (2-4)
8:45 pm ET | ESPN+ | ESPN BET: LAC -2.5 (43.5 O/H)
Chargers storyline to watch: QB Justin Herbert is coming off his best game of the season, with season highs in passing yards (237), completions (21) and attempts (34). The Cardinals are allowing the 11th-most passing yards per game (220.3) in the NFL this season, and offensive coordinator Greg Roman could look to build on Herbert’s performance last week with another passing outburst. The Chargers could also get wide receiver DJ Chark Jr., who has been on injured reserve all season, back Monday night. — Kris Rhim
Cardinals storyline to watch: The Cardinals haven’t found a way to be consistent, but Monday night might be the time they figure it out if they can take advantage of the Chargers’ weaknesses. Los Angeles is averaging 187 passing yards per game (29th in the NFL) and 6.6 passing yards per play (24th). Arizona would have to improve on its 22nd-ranked 220.3 passing yards allowed per game and 30th-ranked 7.78 passing yards allowed her play, but Herbert has thrown for more than 200 yards just once this season. — Josh Weinfuss
Stat to know: The Chargers have not allowed a single point off turnovers. The only other team that can say the same is the Steelers.
Bold prediction: Cardinals QB Kyler Murray will average under 6.5 air yards per pass attempt. The Chargers run two-high coverage 58% of the time (third most) and have at least one outside corner in press coverage only 25% of the time (least often). That should lead to shorter passes. — Walder
Injuries: Chargers | Cardinals
Fantasy X factor: Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins. He has had 17 or more touches in four out of five games. With Gus Edwards on injured reserve, Dobbins is set to see a huge workload moving forward. Also, the Cardinals’ defense allows the second-most rushing yards per game to running backs. See Week 7 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Murray is 15-22 ATS in his career at home; Herbert is 20-13 ATS in his career on the road. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Chargers 21, Cardinals 20
Moody’s pick: Chargers 20, Cardinals 16
Walder’s pick: Cardinals 26, Chargers 24
FPI prediction: ARI, 51.7% (by an average of 0.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: Chargers’ Harbaugh ‘confident’ heart condition under control … What QB Murray, Cardinals learned from sloppy loss vs. Packers