Four-team race for top pick: Who has the inside track to picking No. 1, and who needs a QB?

The race for the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL draft is becoming much clearer, especially since we last checked in mid-November. Four teams — the Giants, Patriots, Panthers and Raiders — have at least a 10% chance of landing the top pick, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index projections.

So, we called on our NFL Nation reporters to size up each of these bottom-tier franchises heading into Week 16. How did each team lose control of its season? Can it win any more regular-season games? Are there any major changes lying ahead in the offseason? To finish it off, NFL draft analyst Matt Miller spun it forward and suggested how each team might use the No. 1 pick. Which teams need a franchise quarterback, and which ones could go another route?

Let’s start with the Giants, who are running away as the favorite to land the top selection amid a nine-game losing streak.

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New York Giants (2-12)

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 37.0%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 88.7%

The biggest problem this season: The Giants’ issues begin with their offense, which averages a league-low 14.4 points per game. They have cycled through four quarterbacks this season and can’t keep any of them upright. But it’s more than that. The Giants need playmakers outside of rookie Malik Nabersan improved offensive line and more depth across the roster.

Sizing up the remaining schedule: It’s not the hardest remaining schedule in the world, especially considering it’s possible the Eagles will have nothing to play for in Week 18 since they’ve already clinched a playoff spot. The Falcons are also struggling, and the Colts are hardly world-beaters. Still, the Giants will be underdogs in all three games and can easily end the season on an epic 12-game skid.

What we’re hearing on offseason moves: It’s hard not to think an organizational overhaul is possible considering the Giants haven’t won since Oct. 6. It doesn’t matter if owner John Mara said in late October that coach Brian Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen are safe. Things change when you have the league’s worst record in Year 3 of a regime. And do impending free agents like wide receiver Darius Slaytonsafety Jason Pinnockdefensive back Isaiah Simmons and edge rusher Azeez Ojulari even want to return? –Jordan Raanan

What they could do with the top pick: The Giants have to be all-in on a quarterback after releasing a former first-rounder in Daniel Jones. With the lowest TD/INT ratio in the league at 0.9, they are desperate to reset under center. Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders — who has thrown 35 touchdown passes this season — is my top-ranked quarterback in the class. His surgical accuracy, toughness in the pocket, advanced field vision and knack for explosive plays make him the best option for New York. –Miller

New England Patriots (3-11)

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 23.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 87.5%

The biggest problem this season: The Patriots have had nine different offensive line configurations in 13 games, a result of injuries, poor performance and missed personnel evaluations. They rank No. 32 in pass block win rate, and the receiving corps doesn’t have anyone who strikes fear into opponents. They’ve also regressed on defense, which is surprising given first-year head coach Jerod Mayo’s background as a Patriots linebacker and defensive assistant.

Sizing up the remaining schedule: ESPN Analytics rates the Patriots’ final stretch — at Bills, vs. Chargers and vs. Bills — as the hardest in the NFL. The Pats’ best chance to win might be in Week 18 if the playoff-bound Bills decide to rest their starters and not compete for a better seeding.

What we’re hearing on offseason moves: With the most cap space in the league next season (approximately $96 million, per Roster Management System), the expectation is the Patriots will be aggressive from a roster-building standpoint. It would be a surprise — barring a late-season collapse competitively — if Mayo and first-year executive vice president of player personnel Eliot Wolf don’t return. Owner Robert Kraft acknowledged entering this season that there would likely be growing pains for both of them. — Mike Reiss

What they could do with the top pick: Every position outside of quarterback is on the needs list for the Patriots, making this a very interesting team if it does have the first pick. As Mike mentioned above, offensive tackle is at the top of the Patriots’ priorities to start building a solid core around rookie quarterback Drake Maye. Texas’ Kelvin Banks Jr. is the top-ranked player at that position with a top-five overall grade on my board.

Banks has the best allowed pressure percentage in FBS at just 0.3% over 696 snaps at left tackle. A trade would be in play for the Patriots if a quarterback-needy team wanted to come up the board, but they shouldn’t be interested in going back too far. –Miller

Carolina Panthers (3-11)

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 13.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 85.8%

The biggest problem this season: The porous defense. It started with the season-ending losses of Pro Bowl defensive lineman Derrick Brown (knee) in the opener and veteran middle linebacker Shaq Thompson (Achilles) in Week 2. The unit was too thin talentwise to survive and became the worst in the league overall and against the run, which makes it particularly hard to be competitive.

Sizing up the remaining schedule: The Panthers were favored for the first time in 34 games Sunday against Dallas. It’s doubtful they will be favored in any of the last three against Arizona, Tampa Bay and Atlantawho are all fighting for playoff spots. The Panthers could easily lose all three to finish 3-14.

What we’re hearing on offseason moves: They won’t be looking for a quarterback. Despite Sunday’s career-high four-turnover game, quarterback Bryce Young has played well enough to give him a shot at the starting job next season, which he took back from Andy Dalton in Week 8 after Dalton injured his thumb in car wreck. The Panthers will actively look for an edge rusher in the offseason through free agency and the draft. — David Newton

What they could do with the top pick: With the resurgence of Young, the Panthers need help in numerous other places on their roster. This is where Travis Hunterthe two-way star from Colorado, is a great fit. Hunter would give Young a dynamic, speedy, playmaking wide receiver to grow alongside Xavier Legetteand he could also play at least situationally at cornerback. The Panthers are eager for impact players, and this year’s Heisman Trophy winner exemplifies that type. Hunter has 14 touchdown catches on offense and four interceptions on defense this season. –Miller

Las Vegas Raiders (2-12)

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 13.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 63.6%

The biggest problem this season: No quarterback. Sure, the Raiders gave Gardner Minshew a two-year, $25 million contractand Aidan O’Connell returned after a strong finish to his rookie season. But injuries and ineffectiveness have stifled Las Vegas’ offense. Minshew was benched three times before a broken collarbone ended his season in Week 12. O’Connell broke his right thumb before a bone bruise on his left knee sidelined him. Desmond Ridder started Monday night’s game against the Falcons.

Sizing up the remaining schedule: This week’s game against the Jaguars could be an eliminator for the No. 1 pick, as the winner is likely out of the running for the top choice. The Raiders then travel to New Orleanswhere they might face former franchise quarterback Derek Carr. The Saints have been hit by just as many impactful injuries. Las Vegas closes at home against the Chargers.

What we’re hearing on offseason moves: Raiders owner Mark Davis recently said coach Antonio Pierce and general manager Tom Telesco are not necessarily a package deal. That means one could return without the other next season. Plus, the Raiders have 16 scheduled unrestricted free agents. The elephant in the room is new minority owner Tom Brady and what decision-making responsibilities he will have this offseason. — Paul Gutierrez

What they could do with the top pick: It’s quarterback or bust for the Raiders after they missed out on the top six passers from the first round of the 2024 NFL draft. Sanders will be in play here, but Miami’s Cam Ward will also be in this conversation with his dual-threat ability (36 passing touchdowns and four rushing scores this season). With Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert in the AFC West, the Raiders need a dynamic quarterback who can carry their team’s offense and keep them at least somewhat competitive in their division. Both Ward and Sanders have proved their ability to do that with the second-most (4,123) and third-most (3,926) passing yards in the country, respectively. –Miller