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John Munson/Associated Press
With the 2022 NFL draft right around the corner, several teams are busy mulling over what to do with their 2019 first-round pick.
The current structure of rookie contracts leaves teams with a massive decision to make after three seasons. That’s when teams have to decide whether to exercise the fifth-year option that comes with the contract of a first-round pick.
Previously, the fifth-year option was even more valuable, as it was a continuation of the rookie pay scale. The 2020 collective bargaining agreement changed that. The fifth-year option is now more in line with veteran pay and can escalate based on playing time and performance.
The result is a more difficult decision than in previous years. The Seattle Seahawks became the first team this offseason to officially exercise the option with newly acquired tight end Noah Fant, per Adam Schefter of ESPN.
Teams have until May 2 to decide whether they will exercise their 2023 option for the 2019 draft class.
Using Over the Cap’s projections for the value of each fifth-year option, here’s a look at some of the more notable decisions this year. Each slide includes a prediction for whether the team will exercise or decline the option, with the forecast based on the player’s current role and projected production.
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Nick Wass/Associated Press
Projected Option: $13.4 million
The 2019 draft class was light on first-round receivers. While there could be five or more that go in the first round this year, Marquise Brown was the first one off the board in 2019 at No. 25.
The Ravens receiver hasn’t been the best in the class. He’s sixth in the draft class in receiving yards, with D.K. Metcalf, Terry McLaurin and A.J. Brown taking the top three spots.
However, the Ravens’ opportunity to lock him into a fifth year is still a big advantage. Brown has at least proven he’s capable of being a second option. He eclipsed 1,000 yards for the first time in his career in 2021 and is a solid complement to tight end Mark Andrews and 2021 rookie Rashod Bateman moving forward.
Brown’s projected fifth-year option salary gives him the 22nd-highest cap hit for 2023, per Spotrac. That’s before 2023 free agency sees another batch of receivers get paid.
Even if Brown doesn’t get any better than what he showed in 2021, he’ll be worth the price in 2023.
Prediction: Exercise
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Matt Durisko/Associated Press
Projected Option: $11.7 million
Devin Bush looked like a no-brainer in his rookie season. He finished fourth in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting following a 2019 season in which he compiled 109 tackles, four passes defended, two interceptions and nine tackles for a loss.
Two years later, it’s no longer such an easy decision for the Steelers.
Bush tore his ACL during the fifth game of the 2020 campaign and missed the rest of the season. When he returned, his 2021 season looked nothing like his rookie year. He had just 70 tackles in 14 games and was less disruptive across the board, finishing the season 82nd out of the 87 qualifying linebackers graded by PFF.
Bush could be one of the most improved players in 2022 if he can get back to his rookie form. But betting $11.7 million that he’s going to do that is a pretty steep price to pay.
The Steelers would be better off making 2022 a prove-it year.
Prediction: Decline
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Zach Bolinger/Associated Press
Projected Option: $8 million
What the Raiders decide to do with Josh Jacobs will be the latest look at how the league values running backs.
Saquon Barkley was the only running back of the three selected in the first round of the 2018 draft to have his fifth-year option exercised last year. But the Giants spent the second overall pick on him, and it’s still a decision the new regime might wish it could take back after his 593-yard, two-touchdown 2021 season.
Jacobs will be an interesting case study. He’s been an important part of the offense with over 1,200 total yards in each of his three seasons, including a Pro Bowl campaign in 2020.
However, it’s important to note that newly installed coach Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler didn’t draft Jacobs.
On the surface, $8 million isn’t that big of a cap hit. According to Spotrac, it would be the 11th-highest for a running back in 2023.
Given the big-money contracts that were given to Derek Carr and Davante Adams, though, it’s hard to see the Raiders paying up at the running back position. Jacobs is a talented back, but with expensive skill players on the roster already, the Raiders could opt to seek cheaper options.
Prediction: Decline
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Bill Kostroun/Associated Press
Projected Option: $22.4 million
It’s been three seasons since the New York Giants asked if Daniel Jones could be a franchise quarterback by drafting him with the sixth pick in the 2019 draft.
At best, the answer has been inconclusive.
Jones showed promise as a rookie with 24 touchdowns to 12 interceptions and over 3,000 yards passing. The problem is he hasn’t come close to those numbers again and hasn’t been able to stay healthy. He only played 11 games in 2021, throwing for 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
While those numbers and his record as a starter (12-25) are disappointing, there’s plenty of blame to go around. Jones has been saddled with Joe Judge and Pat Shurmur as his head coaches with Mike Shula, Jason Garrett and Freddie Kitchens coordinating his offenses.
That’s not exactly a lineup that inspires confidence.
Ultimately, there’s enough evidence that he can improve to give him another year as a starting quarterback. There isn’t enough to give him a two-year commitment at the projected price tag.
Jones should get the chance prove himself during the 2022 season under new head coach Brian Daboll. If he does that, then the Giants can talk with him about a contract extension.
Prediction: Decline
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Danny Karnik/Associated Press
Projected Option: $13.2 million
The Falcons had a pair of first-round picks in 2019 and went all-in on the offensive line. They took Chris Lindstrom with the 14th selection and then selected Kaleb McGary with pick No. 31.
Given the positional value between tackle and guard, it was odd they went with the guard before the tackle. With the benefit of hindsight, it’s still odd.
That said, Lindstrom has turned out to be a strong contributor for the Falcons. The unit as a whole finished 27th in PFF’s final offensive line grades, but that wasn’t his fault. He had the highest grade of the bunch and did not allow a single sack on over 1,000 snaps.
McGary, on the other hand, has been a liability. According to PFF, he has surrendered 26 sacks in 46 games.
The $13.2 million price tag for an interior lineman is tough to swallow, but the Falcons don’t have better options with so many other questions on the line. While that money is fine for a good tackle, McGary hasn’t proven to be worth anywhere near that much.
Prediction: Exercise Lindstrom, Decline McGary
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Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press
Projected Option: $12.6 million
The Bengals’ offensive line was something of a punching bag this season. While the offense reached new heights, Joe Burrow still absorbed 51 sacks. As a result, the line took the brunt of the blame whenever the Bengals struggled, including when they fell short in the Super Bowl.
While the interior of the line was particularly bad, Jonah Williams was quietly pretty good. He missed his entire 2019 rookie season with a shoulder injury before playing 10 games while dealing with knee injuries in 2020.
He looked like a pro when he was finally healthy and on the field in 2021.
Williams allowed eight sacks but earned a 77.1 grade from PFF, ranking 32nd out of 83 tackles graded by the site.
Those aren’t great numbers, but they are promising. Looking at what the Bengals have done this offseason, they made clear moves to add talent to the offensive line but did not find a replacement for Williams.
That’s not an accident. He’s going to be the starting left tackle moving forward, and the fifth-year option makes sense to keep him under contract for the additional year.
Prediction: Exercise
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Winslow Townson/Associated Press
Projected Option: $11.5 million
The Jets took a big swing by selecting defensive tackle Quinnen Williams with the No. 3 pick in the 2019 draft. While he hasn’t become the game-wrecker they were hoping for with that high draft pick, he’s been a reliable and valuable starter.
Williams has been a disruptive force as an interior pass-rusher, registering 87 pressures and 15.5 sacks across three seasons, per Sports Info Solutions.
It’s also important to note that it can take a while for interior defenders to reach their potential. For example, Chris Jones didn’t hit double-digit sacks until his third season.
At worst, Williams has already proven to be a starting-caliber player. He was ranked 37th among qualifying interior defenders by PFF last season. At best, Williams could still become the kind of interior force that offenses have to focus on at all times.
Either way, he’s worth keeping for a fifth year.
Prediction: Exercise