Gallagher had met with the National Republican Senatorial Committee and its chair, Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), who was particularly eager to land him and saw him as the strongest prospective challenger. The committee released polling it commissioned in late May showing Gallagher just 1 percentage point behind Baldwin in a survey of likely voters.
A Marine veteran with an intelligence background and a Ph.D., Gallagher is also a strong fundraiser. But he had publicly broken with former President Donald Trump after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol and reaffirmed earlier this year that he would not support Trump in 2024. That could have made him vulnerable in a primary.
Other prospective candidates include: businessmen Eric Hovde and Scott Mayer, Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Wis.) and former Milwaukee Sheriff David Clarke.
Democrats celebrated Gallagher’s decision as a recruitment flop for the GOP.
“Senate Republicans’ top potential candidates are refusing to run because they know they cannot beat strong Democratic Senators like Tammy Baldwin,” Amanda Sherman Baity, a spokesperson for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said in a statement. “Even the most sought after GOP recruits know their party’s toxic agenda and their vicious primaries will lead their campaigns to defeat in the general election.”
Gallagher is considered a rising star in House GOP politics. Wisconsin’s other senator, Ron Johnson, will be up in 2028 and many believe he will retire. A run for an open seat — potentially with Trump out of office — might be a more appealing long-term goal for Gallagher.
Republicans’ top 2024 focus is ousting Democratic incumbents in West Virginia, Montana and Ohio. They don’t need to win Wisconsin to take back the Senate but strong recruits in states that Biden carried narrowly will help widen the path back to the majority.