Top trader Vitol eyeing metals market as global oil demand set to peak in 10 years, CEO signals

Russell Hardy, chief executive officer of Vitol Services Ltd.

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SINGAPORE — Vitol is eyeing the metals market with global petroleum demand expected to peak in a decade, signaled Russell Hardy, CEO of Vitol, the world’s largest independent energy trader.

“The petroleum, the oil business, we still think it will reach a peak at some point, about 10 years ahead from where we are today,” Hardy said on Thursday at the Financial Times Commodities Summit in Singapore.

In contrast to the eventual decline of the crude industry, metals business is going to witness a “great deal of growth through the electrification phase,” he added.

“So we quite like the idea of being involved in the bigger metal markets. And the three bigger metal markets are steel and iron ore, copper and aluminum,” he said.

In August, Vitol announced its acquisition of Noble Resourcesa Hong Kong-based trader specializing in oil, coal and metallurgical coke, which is used to make iron. Vitol in April poached two metal traders from Mercuria, Reuters reported.

Energy trading giants, such as Gunvor and Mercuria, have in recent years been eyeing the metals space as they explore opportunities offered by the shift in favor of clean energy.

Critical minerals such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium are key in the manufacturing of EV batteries, electric vehicles, power grids and solar panels — some of the components driving the energy transition ecosystem.

Copper in particular is widely expected to see an exponential demand and a potential shortage. Existing mines and projects under construction will meet only 80% of copper needs by 2030according to the International Energy Agency.

The process of scaling a metals business to the same size as its energy arm would be a long and difficult process, acknowledged Hardy, adding that the metals market is a competitive one and the trading house will have to find its “edge” and “pathway.”

“It’s a 10 year ambition, and I’m not going to put any pressure on ourselves to be in a particular place in three years, or five years,” he said, while emphasizing that oil and gas remain “really important” business units for the trader.

Vitol saw a slew of bumper profits in recent years on the back of Europe’s energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.