Who wins the U.S.-Canada rematch? Goalie confidence, X factors, keys to victory

The 4 Nations Face-Off final is set. A 5-3 win for Canada in Monday’s game against Finland has pushed it through to the championship gamewhere it will face the United States. The U.S. clinched its spot in the final with a 3-1 win over Canada on Saturday.

If the return match between the two North American rivals is anything like the first one, hockey fans are in for another treat. That game — which featured three fights in the first nine seconds of play — was heralded by many players as one of the most intense games in which they’d played in their careers.

With the teams set for the final game of the inaugural 4 Nations Face-Off, let’s explore the players who have been most important to each squad, the X factors for Thursday’s game, and just how confident each nation should be in its goaltender.

United States

What we’ve learned so far

All the conversations about what this version of Team USA could achieve has manifested itself in a few ways. Against Finland, the U.S. looked the part of a team that was comfortable playing in a tight-checking game — only to provide the sort of offensive surge with three goals on its first four shots to start the third period.

The performance against Canada further amplified how the squad could rely on its collective talent, capitalizing on mistakes while having the flexibility to withstand a late push.

Team MVP through round robin

Jaccob Slavin. Saying “a Tkachuk” would have made sense, considering Brady and Matthew combined to score four of nine goals for the U.S. through its first two games. And while the brothers’ exploits have received quite a bit of attention, there’s an argument to be made for the role Slavin has played in the success of the team — particularly as Matthew missed the game against Sweden due to injury, and Brady left after the first period.

Sweden defenseman Victor Hedman is the only skater who is averaging more ice time than Slavin during the tournament. Slavin is averaging more than 23 minutes per game, while anchoring a penalty kill that has been perfect through two games, which also speaks to what has allowed the U.S. to succeed within its defensive structure.

X factor: Special teams

Entering the third day of the tournament, there have been only four power-play goals. The U.S. was responsible for scoring two of those goals on five chances. And that’s being done without one of the NHL’s premier power-play quarterbacks in Vancouver Canucks star captain Quinn Hugheswho sat out the tournament because of injury.

The ability to capitalize on the power play has been balanced by a penalty kill that went 4-for-4 through two games because of a structure that not only moves with the puck but works to disrupt passing lanes at all times.

Goalie confidence: (9.5/10)

You might have heard: Connor Hellebuyck is another Vezina Trophy away from being the only American to win three. That would put him in a category with Martin Brodeur, Dominik Hasek and Patrick Roy, among others.

His strong performance in the regular season has carried over to the 4 Nations so far, with Hellebuyck allowing just two goals total in two games. But even with those two goals allowed, Hellebuyck made a number of saves that either made Finland look listless in its opening game, and leaving Canada frustrated in its inability to consistently take advantage of its high-danger chances in a 3-1 loss.

What we’ve learned so far

Canada has taken its time finding a rhythm. It was frequently its own worst enemy in the round robin, and those mistakes often proved costly. Canada showed a different confidence in its last game against Finland, which seemed driven by their star players setting a tone.

But Canada can’t just rely on the likes of Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon to find twine against the U.S. There are strong role players in Canada’s bottom six who can — and should — have an impact, whether it’s Sam Bennett adding some punch (literally) or the threat of a Mitch Marner–Anthony Cirelli connection.

And when it comes to Canada’s blue line, it’s not the same without Cale makar — that was obvious within minutes of him stepping back into the lineup for Monday’s game after sitting out the first game against the U.S. on Saturday because of illness. Jordan Binnington also proved in Monday’s clash why coach Jon Cooper keeps going back to him — Binnington can come through for Canada when it counts.

Team MVP through round robin

Connor McDavid. Now, this is tough, because Sidney Crosby is Canada’s points leader (with five) and Cooper essentially (or actually?) called him a god in Monday’s postgame news conference. And MacKinnon also has been excellent.

But it’s tough to discount what McDavid has done. He scored the opening goal in their last two games (including the lone marker on Connor Hellebuyck in the first matchup against the Americans), and the way he dominated offensively in Monday’s game with Finland was pure magic.

There’s no one who can flip a switch quite like McDavid. If he’s hitting that stride now, that’s everything Canada needs to feel confident ahead of the final.

X factor: Scoring depth

Does Canada have enough of it? They’re about to find out. The U.S. relied on its role players such as Dylan Larkin to win Saturday.

Canada’s scoring to date has come primarily from its top two lines, and that’s important — critical, even. But Canada can’t be one-dimensional in its attack. There’s enough talent on each line that, when showcased early, can make the U.S. nervous. Canada has to tap into that mentality more than it has in recent games.

If the top lines are nullified by the U.S. — and vice versa — then victory could come down to which team gets the most out of its third and fourth units. And the way Cooper chooses to dole out ice time from puck drop also will be telling, and will show what he learned about how the teams matched up in the previous meeting.

Goalie confidence: (7.5/10)

Jordan Binnington is a polarizing figure. Cooper’s determination to stick with him as Canada’s starter throughout this tournament has been met with criticism, confusion and countless questions. His stats at the event also have been underwhelming (.892 save percentage, 2.60 goals-against average).

But Cooper hasn’t wavered, and Binnington was the best he has been so far in Canada’s game against Finland.

Now it comes down to whether the Stanley Cup-winning St. Louis Blues backstop can carry that performance over into the final — at least the one he turned in for 55 minutes (giving up two 6-on-5 goals to the Finns in three minutes was a tough look). Timely stops — that’s what Hellebuyck has provided the U.S., and it’s what Binnington has increasingly shown he can give to Canada.

Granted, Binnington didn’t get much help offensively from his teammates in that first outing against the Americans, but regardless if that’s the case again Thursday, Binnington must save his most complete effort for this final bout.